Business plans have become essential for any organization, and innovation forecasting has become a substantial part of it. It is important to establish alternatives and margins for any possible risk effects. The best way to start with innovative forecasting in business is to base it on dynamics that are easy to understand and manage (Güell, 2019). Asking questions such as what kind of innovation the organization is and what the characteristics are of any projects that need to be undertaken is a good place to begin the forecasting. There are three objectives of the innovation process that should be considered when business plans and forecasts are being devised, and those are to do it in the shortest time, use minimum resources, and launch the best solution you possible can to the market (Güell, 2019).
Along with considering those three objectives of the innovation process, the organization should also decide which forecasting methodology they will use. There are five forecasting methodologies in the innovation project process (Güell, 2019):
- Causal methods – this methodology is based on statistical data that is related to population.
- Statistical methods: Time series and projections – this methodology is based on trends and historical data, seasonality, correlations, and patterns to make projections.
- Qualitative and exploratory – this methodology is usually utilized by using the Delphi method and brainstorming in a group, design thinking, surveys, intuitive forecasting, and historical analogy of similar services and products.
- Consensus – this methodology consists of exchanging the results of different methods and agreements. A collective team of people contribute ideas and methods.
- Simulations and Analogies – this methodology is the use of different scenarios and simulations to predict outcomes of different futures. This method is mostly used in long-term planning.
During my research to find an infamous prediction that came true, I came across an article that wrote about a science fiction writer named James R. Berry who wrote an article in 1968 entitled ’40 Years in the Future’ (Kwasi, 2021). One of the predictions he made in this article is the future of health. I had a difficult time finding an actual infamous prediction that came true outside of catastrophes to do with war and weather, so I settled on this one by James R. Berry. This is because some of the predictions he made at the time seemed far-fetched to a lot of people, but they actually did come true. This is the case with the future of health.
In the article Berry wrote, he describes that in 40 years most babies born in the 21st century will live long and healthy lives due to more advanced medical technology, and this has come true (Kwasi, 2021). Berry also predicted that specialized medication would help eliminate or control heart disease and other diseases. The two impacts I believe contributed to the prediction coming true are changes in how food is made (processed food) and how it contributes to obesity and heart disease and also how medical tools and machines have advanced. Changes in food processing has made people unhealthy and overweight. This has led to more research into helping prevent obesity. The critical need to cure diseases has made technology progress in medical machines and devices.
Reference for image in blog post is listed below.
References
Güell, F. (2019, October 23). Forecasting innovation. Retrieved from FGuell: https://www.fguell.com/en/forecasting-innovation/
Kwasi. (2021). 7 Futuristic Predictions From 1968 That Came True. Retrieved from Kwasi: https://kwasi.com/futuristic-predictions/
Login Note. (2021). Image from website. Retrieved from Login Note: https://www.loginnote.com/technology-of-the-future-2050